Crypto Digest: End of the Bull Market?
While crypto showed resilience during the tariffs in March, it appears to be struggling significantly as tensions in the Middle East rise.
Is this just another pullback, or can we expect a significant correction?
Let’s take a look at the key indicators and what we can expect in the upcoming weeks.
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Bitcoin
Price Action
Looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes, we are still technically in an uptrend.
No key swing low was broken, and the 365-day rolling VWAP has been respected during the pullback in April.
What is concerning, though, is the failure to make new all-time highs similar to the top in 2021.
In these articles, I will do my best to refrain from any fundamental analysis, as my trading is very technical. I generally do not care about what is going on in the world. Still, at the same time, there has been a lot going on for Bitcoin, especially in terms of strength during the Tariff talks, consisting of institutional buying pressure from Michael Saylor and his newfound copycats, but also Blackrock, which just recently bought more and owns around 3.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
All of this, combined with a very crypto-friendly landscape in the United States and other global adaptations in various forms, would lead you to think that Bitcoin would be trading much higher.
This is why I have been very defensive in the past weeks and kept most of my trades short-term.
Looking at the daily timeframe, I am considering two possible scenarios in which I would like to trade.
- Reclaim of the 100k support area would likely be the case if the conflict in the Middle East does not further escalate.
- Long into the 97- 95k region, which provides strong technical support in the form of price structure, 200-day moving average, and 90-day rolling VWAP.
I am not currently considering any short trades due to my current positioning, which we will cover next.
Positioning
In terms of positioning, we are starting to form a good case for possible upside in both spot and perpetual space.
Open interest is decreasing as longs get liquidated, and most importantly, we are seeing the first signs of clear spot bid interest since the April lows.
Keep in mind that these indicators do not act as timing tools, but rather provide a bias for trade ideas; therefore, it can take time before a reversal is seen.
The options market is also signaling a higher put premium on 25 delta risk reversal of around -5 skew.
It is still quite far from the readings we saw at the April bottoms, but it seems like the market is becoming a little more cautious and heavy on the short side at the moment.
Ethereum
ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment after all.
One of the main reasons for it (in my humble opinion) was that it became a consensus trade extremely quickly, as I kept seeing a “defi summer 2025” tweet all over X after one week of ETH outperformance.
In a tweet couple days ago, I mentioned that people are getting too horny, and market made sure to punish them.
Price action
The weekly timeframe does look quite scary. During significant market moves, like we had at the beginning of May, the last thing you want to see is price retracing throughout that area, as these low-liquidity movements often provide very little support.
From the weekly timeframe perspective, I see the next support at the 1800 area.
Zooming in on a daily timeframe, we are at the level of support right now.
A 90-day rolling VWAP and overall pivotal level can act as a bounce point.
Similar to Bitcoin, I think this will be highly dependent on news surrounding the Middle East.
Positioning
Positioning is now very clearly pointing towards the possible upside reversal in both perpetual and spot.
Skew in ETH is also pretty negative, although slightly more muted, which is, in my opinion, caused mainly by the fact that vol is much higher in ETH; therefore, fewer trades are buying outright puts/calls and instead go with spreads.
To conclude my thoughts on Bitcoin and ETH, I am reasonably sure that my next trade will be long, based on the current levels and overall positioning across different markets.
I think both markets are at the levels where we could see a bounce, but it will be highly dependent on how the situation in Iran escalates.
I don’t think there is a need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife; I would much rather wait for some positive news and signs of lower timeframe reversals.
Altcoins
Altcoins have not been having fun for quite a while. Every time it starts to look better, it will almost immediately get worse.
Many traders were expecting a rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins. Still, this environment is long gone, and the main play after Bitcoin seems to be crypto-related stocks (which makes sense considering how successful BTC ETFs have become).
Because of that, there are not many opportunities worth talking about in altcoins, as even strong names like Solana struggle a lot.
You can see this relative weakness in SOL by the fact that it has almost retraced the entire rally from April and is now returning to the $100 area.
This will be, in my opinion, a very key level to hold as there is not much of a technical support sub $100.
If shit hits the fan, I won’t be opposed to trying to bid SOL somewhere around the $100 mark, as indicators are favouring a bounce.
Besides Solana, we had two other clear favourites, which are Hype and Fartcoin.
One offers a genuinely great product, while the other attracts a lot of traders due to its extreme volatility and solid liquidity.
Since both of these coins are relatively new, I do not have access to the same amount of data as I do with Bitcoin and other majors.
Because of that, I keep things simple with just technical analysis.
Fartcoin would become attractive if it could reclaim the $1 or $ 0.50 area. Hype could find a bounce sub $30.
In conclusion
We are not in easy market conditions, with a lot of geopolitical uncertainty, and markets can be significantly affected by a single news release.
Because of that, you should not overstay your welcome, and keep your risk tight.
As much as I think the market is getting too short at the moment, I am still very conscious of a possible multi-month correction being in play.