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8th of June 2025 – Weekly Riot

Welcome to Weekly Riot. In this series, we will take a look at the most important events that happened in the last week and review some analytics of all major markets.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has been experiencing slight corrections over the last two weeks.

On Friday, we have finally traded to the 100k area, which has been my main level to watch based on the analysis I posted a couple of days ago on X.

Bitcoin already reacted positively from the lows and rallied over the weekend.

I still believe that Bitcoin is one of the best bets in the current market conditions, which are characterized by trade wars and overall macroeconomic uncertainty.

What is more important than seeing the price going to support is the fact that we saw a reset in both spot and derivatives indicators.

I think that if we are about to go higher into price-discovery, there are not many reasons to revisit the Friday lows.

At the same time, the fact that the price has been grinding up slowly the whole weekend is always slightly suspicious.

If you are not long from the lows, I would personally be rather patient here and try to wait for signs of confirmation that the low is in.

Coming into next week, I remain bullish, but I am still careful.

News about the possibility of war escalation between Ukraine and Russia after the drone attack, along with some potential top signals, such as the Circle IPO or general significant institutional Bitcoin interest at all-time highs, is one of those things that look extremely obvious in hindsight when the price is already trading 20% lower.

In my trading overall, I am a big fan of buying when things look terrible and everyone is bearish or at least scared. I don’t think that’s what’s happening now.

SPX

The S&P 500, other indices, and most of Mag7 (except Tesla, thanks to Musk’s recent X crashout) recovered the entirety of the correction from March.

I think that one of the significant signs that tariffs are no longer a concern is the look at the VIX, which has been trading progressively lower since the April lows.

 

We closed the week strong after the positive NFP data, which signals overall signs of the bull market and a strong uptrend.

On top of that, COT positioning in both small and long speculators remains bearish from the lows.

From a price action point of view, these are not levels I am particularly interested in trading, and it is unlikely to change this week.

US Dollar

What I find interesting is the US Dollar.

The dollar and Bonds have been generally weak in the past weeks, suffering from the trade wars and acting as a bet against American exceptionalism.

We can see this sentiment in several different derivative markets.

Looking at the 1-YR and 2-YR relative 25-delta Risk Reversal in options on CME Futures, we can see that the risk reversal is heavily positive in all major currency pairs that are traded against the USD.

This indicates that the demand for calls is significantly higher than for puts and can be viewed as a contrarian indicator at extremes.

On top of that, positioning in COT also shows speculators relatively extreme long while dealers relatively extreme short.

The dollar itself has been more or less sideways, but we had a decent close on Friday after the false break below the range lows. I would not be surprised to see a rotation to the other side of the range.

I am expressing this as a bearish view on Euro futures, which has the highest correlation with the index.

 

Crude Oil

One last thing that I think is worth paying attention to is Crude Oil, which is finding strength after the escalation of fears surrounding the Ukrainian-Russian war.

Despite price action being slow over the last month, in April, we saw the highest spikes in the put skew since 2021, which formed a bottom, and price seems to be moving higher now after accumulating for almost 2 months.

Another factor, coming from COT, shows speculators at historical net short levels while commercials are heavily net long.

Crude oil futures are also trading at backwardation, signaling high demand in the short term.

Conclusion

This concludes this week’s issue; I hope you enjoyed the content.

Feel free to reach out via email at tr*********@***il.com if you have any questions or would like to see some markets/topics covered in future issues.

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