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30th of May 2025 – Weekly Riot

Welcome to another edition of Weekly Riot.

The more geopolitical mess has hit the news this week, as Trump has run into legal issues with tariffs, which caused markets to rally.

Despite the news, tariffs remain in effect as the appeals process plays out.

The appeals court is reviewing the case, with responses due from the plaintiffs by June 5, which is likely to bring another wave of volatility.

In the meantime, let’s have a look at the different markets and what we can expect.

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Taco trap

It has been a few months since we have lived in the Tarriff world, and it has been nothing but a mess on several occasions.

The whole situation is starting to get memed out as the terms “Taco,” which stands for Trump, always chickens out, started circulating and even got to the point where reporters asked Trump directly about it, which was not met with the best reception.

The U.S. Court of International Trade recently ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, stating that such broad tariff powers rest with Congress, not the president.

The court issued a permanent injunction, ordering the administration to halt most of the tariffs and prohibiting future modifications to them.

Although tariffs are still in effect, many market participants have taken this information very positively, which could be a signal of a possible market top.

Examining the S&P 500 chart, we can see a notable recovery following Trump’s suspension of the liberation day tariffs.

However, the price appears to be hitting a key resistance level at the moment, with a failure to rally on positive news of a possible tariff ban.

Some indicators, such as the put-call ratio, suggest an increased level of greed around these prices as well.

Overall, I think there is a possibility of a long squeeze among those buyers who were betting too heavily on the tariff ban this week, and a possible correction to the downside.

The primary levels for next week are expected to be around 5,600-5,700.

If the price manages to break back above the 6,000 region, I would say a new all-time high is very likely.

 

Bitcoin all-time highs

Ever since March, I have mentioned on several occasions that Bitcoin’s outperformance during the geopolitical turmoil was very impressive; last week, we finally reached a new all-time high.

However, this week marked the first time I started to be more cautious, which I mentioned in a tweet here.

Bitcoin has a lot going on for it at the moment, extensive institutional adoption, a hedge narrative amid the tariff narrative, and a recent Bitcoin conference featuring many US politicians that fuels the Bitcoin Strategy Reserve speculations.

Much of this can be observed, particularly in the record inflows of ETFs.

This makes me (as a classic European pessimist) very careful and sceptical when it comes to getting into longs, and most of the trades this week were on the short side because of that.

I would like to see a pullback from here into the $100,000 region with the confluence of all important indicators I am watching.

The upper portion of this chart shows mostly derivatives positioning, in which I would like to see a bigger flush of leveraged positions across the exchanges.

We have reached a significant negative skew in the spot order book (as has been the case many times in the past); this dynamic should also shift, allowing us to see higher prices.

What has been acting as key resistance is the prior all-time high level, which saw a significant absorption of buyers when we tried to break it this week; this level would be a key for bullish continuation.

I have been messing around with the new version of Exocharts this week, which has gotten me back into shorter-term trading with a very clean visual representation of this long-term absorption dynamic.

The big picture

As much as I would like to bull-ieve, one of the mistakes I made in the past during extended moves was ignoring very obvious higher timeframe levels.

Of course, the technical analysis is a little bit of astrology for men, and different people will see completely different things on the same chart, that is why all the TA concepts I use are often extremely simple and do not go beyond variations of horizontal support and resistance.

By looking at charts of ETH, SOL, and BTC, you can say that on the weekly timeframe, all of them are at pretty key resistance levels.

This is why I am slightly more cautious as we enter the new month of June, especially after Bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to a new all-time high within just a few weeks.

One of the most punishing market environments tends to occur after strong movements, when traders become overly biased towards trend continuation and end up getting caught off guard in corrections or slowdowns.