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Week Ahead “9th – 15th of May 2022”

Welcome to the Week Ahead, a free weekly newsletter that gives a reader macro technical insight about the most important financial markets such as Index futures, commodities, currencies and crypto.

In this weekly outlook, I will provide you will significant weekly and daily levels across different markets; on some occasions, I will get biased towards possible scenarios, but I will do my best to keep things neutral.

Markets constantly change, so you must implement your strategy and trade execution around these levels. Nothing I say should be used directly as financial advice or traded blindly.

This newsletter is free and will stay free; if you want to support my work, you can sign-up on Bybit (for crypto) or IC Markets (for Forex and CFDs).

Those who seek a deeper understanding of trade execution and want to be part of a private community can consider joining Tradingriot Bootcamp.

For any questions, don’t hesitate to contact me at tradingriot@gmail.com.

 

No video version this week

 

Fundamental outlook

 

forexfactory.com/calendar

 

After the last week that was filled with economic data this week is also quite busy.

The most important will be CPI and ECB on Wednesday and PPI in the US on Thursday.

Besides that I expect volatility to be calmer.

On more of a personal note, I am having the laser correction surgery on Wednesday therefore I won’t be able to trade much this week.

On top of that, I made the decision to jump back into day trading, without boring you too much with details of that with my upcoming move abroad and other personal things going on, it will be easier for me to focus on trading for a couple of hours a day during RTH sessions of Eurex/CME and Crypto markets rather than trying to manage multiple positions on a swing basis.

Another reason is that I have been focusing on lower timeframe trading using orderflow for such a long time and it is something that suits me personally much better.

This does not change that much for the Week Ahead, but as I will only be trading a handful of markets (ES, BTC, ZB/UB – During US RTH hours and FGBL, FESX)

This means that you won’t find the commodities and currencies here anymore but I will rather include assets like ETH, and FDAX in the future, this week’s focus will only be on BTC and ES.

 

E-mini S&P500

 

Weekly TPO Chart (RTH only)

 

Last week was quite a ride in ES. After dipping under 4100 which was my main level of the interest price rallied during the FOMC only to reverse the whole move on Thursday and close into solid distribution with excess above.

This failed auction above the prior week’s value is not the greatest sign for bulls coming into this week.

Daily Chart

 

On the other hand, the price is sitting at the higher timeframe support at the edge of high volume after taking the low of the year from February.

Coming into this week’s plan is fairly straightforward, if we start to lose 4100 again I am looking for a fill of LVN into 3978.

Breaking above the Value area high on the other hand would be a solid indicator for possible upside, especially since the high made this week did not offer any excess and there is also a flat top on the resistance to the left.

2H chart

2H chart

 

Bitcoin

 

Bitcoin was not able to hold the composite Point of control consolidation and broke to the downside after a solid bull trap during FOMC.

 

Daily composite profile

If we take a look at monthly profiles which this year could be put together into one large composite, we also lost the value area low of this year.

8H chart with monthly profiles

 

As you can notice from the chart we have formed little consolidation between 38-39k, this level will now be pivotal to me going forward, as long as the price stays under it Bitcoin remains bearish.

Although there is always a possibility to form a failed auction under the level and quickly reclaim back, as long as the price stays under there are not many reasons to try to catch a knife around these levels.

D1 chart

From a daily perspective, the market is now selling off at levels of low executed volumes (seen on the volume profile on left).

I would expect continuation towards 31.3k into the HVN edge where we have a start of the rally from Summer 2021.

The 28k area gets a lot of attention with that clean double top, looking at the volume profile if the market hits 28k things could really get ugly as the market would become extremely thin, at that point I would be looking to buy all the way down at 24-25k.

Although people online scream for 100k every day, the Bitcoin chart is very rotational for last 2 years and should be treated as such.

 

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