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Week Ahead

Week Ahead 30th January – 5th February 2023

Welcome to the Week ahead.

Before we get into the plan for the next week, if you want to receive every Week ahead as it is written down during the weekend, make sure to either subscribe to the substack or pick up the Tradingriot Bootcamp, which will give you not only access to these market updates but also over 10 hours of video content and private discord.

If you want to support the content, you can also make an account on Bybit that offers trading cryptocurrency derivatives without KYC.

 

Calendar

We have a big week ahead with FOMC and NFP coming on Wednesday and Friday.

You should also pay attention to ECB if you are trading European markets.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had a very range-bound week without giving any pullback and the failed breakout attempt.

Coming into the next week, I expect the range to continue until the FOMC on Wednesday.

From a composite profile perspective, you can see that we are bouncing between two minor Points of control that are capping the price at the moment.
On lower timeframes, you can notice that the market is currently breaking out from the smaller composite profile we formed this week.
From a swing trading perspective, I still think that the $21665 level should be a solid level to look for pullback longs.
As mentioned last week, I would expect a deeper push into the area based on how the structure formed.
BTC is, at the moment, the Value area high of the composite profile shown on the chart moving towards $23807.
This level can be a great fading point, but be aware of strong momentum and possible continuation higher as long as the market stays above composite VAH at $23164.
Under the composite VAL, look for triple bottom and rotation towards the HVN top at $21665.

Main pivots for the week:

HVN edge: 21576 – important level for trend continuation

mcPOC: 23054 mid-term level – composite POC from all data and also the current week, not the best point to initiate new trades

LVN: 25206 to 28547 – if the market accepts above 25206, a sharp move to 28.5k is very likely to happen

Triple bottom: 22287 – Look for mean reversion trades, especially if we accept back into cVAL after running the lows

cVAH: 23164 – if BTC trades above the weekly high at 23807 and accepts above, I would look at cVAH as the first area for a possible bid.

mcPOC: 20071 first target if we fail under HVN edge at 21576

Ethereum

The idea on ETH from last week played out well as it rotated from $1680 back towards POC at $1565.
That was pretty much the only worth mentioning, as the rest of the week was very sideways.
With ETH being currently at the composite POC I don’t think there is a reason to try to position yourself only to get chopped out at FOMC.
To keep things simple, look at HVN top at $1680 and HVN bottom at $1501 to get into any new positions.
These levels will play a great role in the coming forwards.
Look for either absorption or strength for continuation.
Below you can see both of these scenarios on the footprint chart so you will know what to look for.

Main pivots for the week:

HVN top: 1680 / HVN bottom: 1501  – look for mean reversion/continuation trades as shown above

composite POC: 1565 midpoint of composite value, not the best area to look for trades ahead of FOMC

Daily resistance: 1788, the first target for longs above 1680

HVN top: 1384 first level if we break under 1501

ES

ES closed the week stronger than crypto, acting very well around the levels market from the prior week.

The first attempt above HVN got rejection, but sharp rotation towards minor POC got quickly bought up, and we broke outside of the value towards the end of the week.

 

The top of HVN at 4043 will be the most important level to watch for the trend to sustain.

On the upside, I am interested to see how the market will behave between 4117 and 4131 as we have 2022 VWAP, and general S/R are resting there.

If we manage to break above, I will look for a move all the way to 4182.

If ES fails to hold the trend and accepts back under 4043, rotation to 3982 and last week’s low is expected.

Main pivots for the week:

HVN top: 4043 – key level to hold an uptrend.

2022 VWAP / S/R: 4117 – 31 level of interest for possible continuation or mean reversion

POC: 4182 – main target for longs

Minor POC: 3982 if ES break under 4043, I would look for rotation towards the minor POC at 3982

 

That’s it for the week. I wish you happy trading.

8

chaos

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