Week Ahead 06th – 12th February 2023
Welcome to the Week ahead.
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Calendar
With FOMC and NFP behind us, there are not any key events to pay attention to until CPI on the 14th of February.
Therefore we can expect a calmer week in terms of events.
Bitcoin
Main pivots for the week:
HVN edge: 21665 – important level for trend continuation
LVN: 25206 to 28547 – if the market accepts above 25206, a sharp move to 28.5k is very likely to happen. 25206 will be key level for possible top of the move.
Triple bottom: 22287 – Look for mean reversion trades, this could front-run the HVN edge test at 21665
Ethereum
ETH rotated towards the January high at the edge of the high volume node where it put a failure towards the end of the week.
Because of that, I would expect a pullback towards the POC and possibly even HVN bottom at $1501 due to compressed lows.
Because of this, I will enter the new week short-biased targeting at least 1565 which is composite POC and also the cluster where the market moved higher at FOMC.
Even if we would push straight up from here, I can’t find a good R: R opportunity to reason a long play here.
Below you can see a scenario that would invalidate my short idea and make me get into longs. Ideally above the top of HVN at 1682.
Main pivots for the week:
HVN top: 1683 – Short biased/rotational as long as the market stays under.
composite POC: 1565 cluster area where buyers stepped in at FOMC. The first level is to look for possible long setups.
Daily resistance: 1788, the first target for longs above 1680
HVN 1501: If we rotate all the way down look for failure at 1501 for possible longs, if break under, target 1384.
ES
ES held the edge of HVN mentioned last week and finished up rotating towards POC at 4182 where it printed little failure towards the end of the week.
On LTF we had a QM reversal of just a few points from HVN top which many of you took.
The current high on ES just above 4200 is fairly flat so I would expect it to get traded in the near future.
The 4043 top of the volume node is key for the uptrend to sustain.
If momentum sustains to the upside look for LVN at 4266 – 99 as your first target.
Main pivots for the week:
HVN top: 4043 – key level to hold an uptrend.
LVN: 4266-99 next upside target
POC: 4408 Ultimate upside target
That’s it for the week. I wish you happy trading.
